SPC Jan 22, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is
supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and
western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast
will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for
additional information.

..Lyons.. 01/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/

...Synopsis...
The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is
expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave
trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM
and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward
through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the
surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over
western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore
flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in
place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will
likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050
mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions
promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development.


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SPC Jan 22, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the
contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions
precluding thunderstorms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025


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SPC Jan 22, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western
Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave
perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but
not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south
of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale
troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States.
Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and
Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable
boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that
another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great
Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of
arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and
northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2025


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SPC Jan 21, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place
across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently
centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift
eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over
the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is
anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and
associated stability dominating the sensible weather.

A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the
Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm
sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf
Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in
south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most
likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given
the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase
hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes
are possible throughout the period.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 01/21/2025


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