SPC Jul 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and
isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains
and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early
overnight period.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening. At the surface, a low will move
eastward into eastern South Dakota as a cold front advances
southward across central and southern South Dakota. The front will
provide a focus for convective development this evening, although
scattered storms are also expected across parts of the post-frontal
airmass. Surface dewpoints over most of South Dakota are in the 60s
F, with lower to mid 70s F over south-central Minnesota. Along and
near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 2500 J/kg near
Rapid City to just above 3500 J/kg in far eastern South Dakota.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong to
severe storms will develop near the instability axis early this
evening and grow upscale, tracking eastward across eastern South
Dakota into south-central Minnesota. Within this corridor, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for a
severe threat...see MCD 1536. Any short line segment that can become
organized will likely be capable of severe wind gusts and hail.
There will be potential for wind gusts above 75 mph with any line
segment that can become robust.

Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, an axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near Rapid City
northwestward into southeastern Montana. A cluster of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop this evening and move
southeastward along this axis of instability. Moderate deep-layer
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells
capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As convective
coverage increases, a potential for severe wind gusts is also
expected with any short line segment that can become intense...see
MCD 1535.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2026


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SPC Jul 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.

...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.

Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.

...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026


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SPC Jul 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest..
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
northeastward across eastern MT and western ND. This activity, which
appears to be associated with a weak lead shortwave trough, is
forecast to continue northeastward/eastward throughout the day.
Storm severity will be limited by a lack of buoyancy and stronger
ascent. However, cloud cover associated with this activity will aid
in sharpening a warm front that is expected to develop as the cold
front, which moved across SD last night, returns northward amid
low-level moisture advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trough.

Thunderstorms are first expected to develop back farther west across
the northern High Plains, where moist easterly upslope flow combined
with steep mid-level lapse will foster airmass destabilization.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 J/kg) and
moderate deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt)
will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. One or more bowing segments could evolve
from these supercells, with at least some potential for stronger,
more organized line capable of gust over 70 mph to move across SD.
However, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential is
currently limited, owing to the likelihood of complex interactions
between outflows and new storm development over the MT/WY/SD border
intersection vicinity.

Thunderstorm development also appears probable farther east along
the warm front during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
Large to very large hail is possible with this activity initially,
before upscale growth results in bowing clusters.

Additional storms are possible near the lee trough from southeast WY
into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into
evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe
wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Great Basin...
A modest shortwave trough is forecast to move through northeast NV
and northern UT this afternoon and evening. Modest mid-level
moisture and lift associated with this wave will support isolated to
widely scatted thunderstorms atop a deep and well-mixed boundary
layer. Modest updrafts and high cloud bases atop very steep
low-level lapse rates will support locally severe wind gusts with
the strongest storms.

...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest
easterly mid-level flow is expected over the region, with some
potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower
elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are
possible.

...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a broad upper low centered
over the Mid-South, with a weak vorticity maximum pivoting through
its southwest periphery over southern AR/northern LA. A few
thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this vorticity maximum,
with a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning
through the afternoon as ascent from this vorticity maximum
interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. Vertical
shear is weak but some loosely organized cold pools may evolve,
supporting the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development across the region, beginning over
the Blue Ridge Mountains during the early afternoon and expanding
southward along the weak lee troughing into the central Carolinas.
Some sea breeze development is possible from the VA Tidewater along
the coastal Carolinas as well. Vertical shear will remain weak,
limiting the potential for storm organization. Even so, the presence
of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential,
leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences,
especially with any storm clusters.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/07/2026


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SPC Jul 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated
severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into
the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great
Basin.

...Synopsis...

Ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into
the northern High Plains, the models indicate a lead disturbance
(possible MCV) and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow
progressing through ND into northern MN on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a
shortwave trough will move through the Northeast, while a mid-level
low lingers over the Mid South/lower MS Valley.

At the surface, the primary feature of interest is a front that is
expected to become quasi-stationary from western SD through central
or southern MN and northern WI by afternoon. A surface low is
projected to develop along the boundary in western SD with a lee
trough trailing south from that feature into the central High
Plains.

...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Clusters of elevated thunderstorms tied to the lead disturbance may
be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across portions of eastern MT and western
ND, to the north of the surface front. Modest instability and some
vertical-shear enhancement may support an isolated large hail threat
through the morning, mainly in southern ND.

In the wake of the early-day storms, low-level, upslope flow will
strengthen across the northern High Plains in response to the
approach of a shortwave trough from the west. The associated
increase in low-level moisture will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg from
central MT into western SD with upwards of 2000-3500 J/kg farther
east along the front in SD and MN.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to
late afternoon within the upslope regime from central into eastern
MT and along the front across SD and perhaps MN. Sufficiently strong
vertical shear is forecast from MT east along the front in SD to
support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail
and damaging winds. The 00Z CAMs indicate the initial discrete
storms merging into clusters or one or more MCSs Tuesday evening
into night along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Severe
wind gusts will become the predominant hazard with that mode
transition.

Additional storms are possible near and west of the lee trough in
southeast WY, northeast CO, and the NE Panhandle during the
afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep
and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for
a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon from
the Blue Ridge Mountains east to the lee trough and Carolina sea
breeze. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the
potential for storm organization. Nonetheless, the presence of steep
low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to
the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any
storm clusters.

...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...

A weak vorticity lobe is forecast to pivot south through the Ozark
Plateau into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday with a preceding zone of
forcing for ascent acting on a very moist and moderately unstable
air mass. A resultant increase in storm coverage is expected through
the afternoon with some CAM signal for a loosely organized cold pool
to evolve, which will support the potential for sporadic damaging
wind gusts.

...Great Basin...

The 00Z models suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance will move
through northeast NV and northern UT Tuesday afternoon into the
evening, enhancing lift and vertical shear to some extent. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
that feature by mid to late afternoon atop a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will be supportive of locally severe wind
gusts.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/07/2026


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